Wednesday, September 3, 2008

A Possible October Surprise In Election 2008.

Five days before the Presidential election in October 1968, Democratic President Lyndon Johnson announced a complete halt to the bombing of North Vietnam. This conveniently timed announcement was intended to assist the failing Presidential campaign of Democrat Hubert Humprey.

Four years later, in October 1972, the Nixon Administration would declare that " Peace was at hand" in the Vietnam War. That announcement helped Nixon to a 20 point margin of victory in that Presidential election over George Mcgovern.

The truth is that it is not unusual for newspapers, political campaigns, think tank studies and even books to release studies or disclosures to be timed just before election day in order to influence the outcome of an election. It certainly is not without precedent for a sitting President.

In the 2008 Presidential election, foreign policy experience is a problem for Democrat Barack Obama. It was the primary reason he selected Joe Biden to be his Vice President. However, foreign policy is a political strength for Republican John McCain.

Now consider that there is a real problem in International foreign policy that will simply not go away. It is the problem and danger of a nuclear Iran. Three sets of United Nations sanctions have not deterred the country from enriching Uranium. In fact, Iran has just announced an increase in its effort to achieve a nuclear capability.

The prospect of any meaningful future United Nations sanctions simply does not exist with Russia holding veto power in the United Nations Security Council. Meanwhile, Israel is holding elections in September 2008 which will determine the future leadership of the country. Israel is already on record as saying that it will not accept a Nuclear Iran. (see: Israel Will Act To Prevent A Nuclear Iran on

Also consider that after the November election, President George Bush would have to clear any bombing action against Iran through what could well be a reluctant Democratic president and Democratic Congress. So, October could well be George Bush's last chance to deal with the problem in Iran without leaving it for the next administration.

Of course, any October military action against Iran would also serve to remind America of the importance of a candidate's foreign policy experience. It would also be one last chance to help the potential sagging political fortunes of the campaign of Republican John McCain.

Therefore, various political and International conditions are favorable for an October Surprise in Election 2008. In addition, consider the implications of a recent article from the Dutch newspaper, De Telegraaf, ( see article below).

Will there be an October surprise in Election 2008? Will that surprise include the bombing of Iran? It certainly would not be without precedent in American political history. Watch John McCains public opinion poll numbers closely in the next few weeks. If they begin to fall and if I was in Iran, I would keep a close eye to the sky.

Here is the article on September 1, 2008 in the Telegraph. U.K.

Dutch withdraw spy from Iran because of 'impending US attack'

The Dutch intelligence service has pulled an agent out of an "ultra-secret operation" spying on Iran's military industry because spymasters in Netherlands believe a United States air attack was imminent. According to reports in the newspaper De Telegraaf, the country's intelligence service, the AIVD, has stopped an espionage operation aimed at infiltration and sabotage of the weapons industry in Iran.

"The operation, described as extremely successful, was halted recently in connection with plans for an impending US air attack on Iran," said the report. "Targets would also be bombed which were connected with the Dutch espionage action." "Well placed" sources told the paper that a top agent had been recalled recently "because the US was thought to be making a decision within weeks to attack Iran with unmanned aircraft". "Information from the AIVD operation has in recent years been shared with the American CIA secret service." Brig Gen Seyyed Massoud Jazayeri, deputy chief of the Iranian armed forces, warned at the weekend that military attacks against Iran would trigger a Third World War."The exorbitant demands of the US leaders and the global Zionism which have created the current situation in Iraq, Afghanistan, Sudan and Caucasus are gradually directing the world to the edge of the cliff," he said.

The US has refused to rule out a military attack against Iran if its government continues to enrich uranium as part of its civilian nuclear programme, which the West suspects has the clandestine objective of developing atomic weapons. Iran has warned it would close the strategic Strait of Hormuz, the entrance to the Gulf and a major oil shipping route, if it is attacked.

On Friday, the Israel newspaper Ma'ariv reported that Israel has stepped up preparations for a contingency plan to attack Iran, should diplomatic efforts, via the United Nations, fail to derail Tehran's suspected nuclear weapons programme.

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