Election 2008: A Close Race In The Battleground States

One thing becomes very clear when you, look at the different public opinion polls in the Presidential election of 2008. Going into the Republican National Convention, this is one very close race. It looks like Barack Obama got an average Convention "bounce" of 4% from the well run Democratic Convention.

It would only take a small post convention bounce for John McCain this week to return this race to a statistical dead heat. Indeed, the voting public appears evenly divided between the two Presidential contenders. A look at a few of the national polls this morning tells the story. Gallup has Obama up by 6%. Rasmussen has Obama up by 3% and Zogby has McCain up by 2%. The Electoral College is close as well with only 10 Electoral votes separating the two candidates. (Rasmussen).

So, what will decide this 2008 Presidential Election? Lets first discuss what will not. The 2008 Presidential Election will not be decided on whether Sarah Palin eats mooseburgers or how well Joe Biden avoided Vietnam. It will not be decided on the pending pregnancy of Sarah Palin's daughter or the past plagerism of Joe Biden's speeches. It likely will not be decided by either candidates choice of a Vice President since it is the top of the ticket that wins or loses elections. Historically, the choice of the V.P. only amounts to a 1% popular vote benefit for the Presidential candidate.

With the contest this close, Election 2008 will be decided by the voting in just a dozen American States. The fact is that with 90% of Republicans voting for McCain and a similar number of Democrats voting for Obama, the Independent voter in twelve battleground states will decide the outcome of this election.

For the Independent voter, it will be the answers to the following three questions that will determine the selection:

1. Has Barack Obama been completely vetted by the political media? McCain is very well known to the voting public. It is unlikely that there is anything that is unknown about him at this point concerning his personal background. However, since political newcomer Barack Obama has not yet "sealed the deal" with the voting public despite his gifted oratory, any new dubious revelation about Obama's background would hurt his candidacy.

2. How will each man do in the three scheduled Debates? How will Obama do in handling foreign policy questions? Will McCain look weak when compared to the oratory skill of Obama? How will McCain handle questions concerning the economy, an area he readily admits he is weak on?

3. Who will make that crucial mistake? In a close election, a major gaffe, or speaking mistake could well decide the outcome. So, the candidates better realize; how many houses they have, why they are running for office, and know how many states there are in the United States Of America.

For more on the voting in Election 2008 see: The Twelve States That will Decide Election 2008 on eworldvu.com.