No Holiday Cheer In Retail Sales This Year

The shopping malls have been quiet during the last few weeks. So, it looks like the result of a recent Gallup public opinion poll for this holiday season is about to ring true.

On average Americans spent $866 dollars on Christmas last year. However, there will be more room under the Christmas tree on December 25th because the average American plans to spend only about $616 this year.

In fact, declining retail sales have been a story for months. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, retail sales dropped 1.8 percent from October to November. The drop marked the fifth consecutive monthly decline in sales. November 2008 sales, were 7.4 percent below retail sales when compared with same month last year. The report said total sales for the September through November 2008 period were down 4.5 percent from the same period a year ago.

The only exception to the declining trend in retail spending was in electronics. Retail Electronics and appliance stores saw a sales increase from October to November to $9.23 billion from $8.97 billion, or 2.8 percent growth.

The boost in electronics and appliance sales was tied to hot consumer electronic products like video game systems, flat-screen televisions, music players and smartphones. However, while electronics sales grew month-to-month, year-to-year sales were still down 4.7 percent in November compared to the same month a year before.

Of course, the ongoing decline in retail sales reflects a dramatic decrease in consumer confidence in the economy as the 2008 global recession continues. Employment in America fell by 533,000 jobs in November and one million people losing employment may well become a dubious monthly job statistic by next spring.

In tough economic times, consumer discretionary items are always a victim and this year will be no different. There may well be electronics and video games like Wii under the average Chistmas Tree, but Santa will also leave more empty space where presents in previous years used to be.

Look for several large retail business bankrupcy's in the first quarter of the New Year. Indeed, going out of business, liquidation sales, will soon advertise the demise of debt laden retailers. The economic recession of 2008 means there will be no holiday cheer in retail sales this year.

Bush, Congress and The 2009 Federal Budget Deficit

The Federal budget deficit for 2009 is now projected at a record 482 billion dollars. That will eclipse the old record of 413 billion set at the end of George Bush's first term in 2004.

The next President will certainly have a sobering first few days in office when he realizes that there is no money left to spend to cover all the promises that he made to get into the Oval Office to begin with.

In fact, he has to find at least 482 billion dollars just to make ends meet. Of course, the next President can just add to the ten trillion dollars of cumlative national debt that the country already has a tab for.

In truth, the record budget deficit of 482 billion for 2009 is actually going to be to low. It assumes higher economic growth than is forecast and doesn't account for the total cost of the country's ongoing military obligations in Iran and Afghanistan. Sooner or later the Congress of the United States has got to stop spending money that it doesn't have and the President needs to veto legislation that is fiscally irresponsible.

A stewardship of foreign Wars with dubious management and irresponsible fiscal spending has dramatically lowered the public's opinion of the performance in office of President Bush. Huge annual deficit spending is also contributing to the damage to the Republican brand in this election year.

During the last decade, pork barrel domestic spending to insure re-election has become an addiction for the career professional politician in both major political parties. The stealth cover of Congressional earmarks have been the used to hide their domestic spending trail.

Therefore, a President who wants real change in Washington D.C. in 2009 will have to reign in, "out of control" federal spending first. The longer the delay, the more we all will have to eventually pay. (For more on Congress and spending see: The Surreal World Of The United States Congress on eWorldvu.com.)