Russia's New Cold War With Europe

On New Year's Eve, the deadline expired for Russia and Ukraine to agree on a new contract for 2009 gas supplies. Moscow had wanted to raise its prices and charge Kiev $250 per 1,000 cubic metres, up from $179.5 last year.

The Ukrainians thought that excessive and refused to pay a cent more than $201. Russia promptly put its price up to $450. Then, at 10am on New Year's Day, Russia's energy monopoly Gazprom halted supplies of all gas meant for domestic use in Ukraine.

The pipelines that cross Ukraine also carry gas to Europe. In fact, 20% of the European Union's gas is supplied by Russia through pipelines in the Ukraine. Recently, Russia's dispute with the Ukraine has escalated and it has stopped supplying gas through the Ukraine to Bulgaria, Hungary, Greece, Turkey, Germany, Romania, Serbia, Bosnia and Macedonia.

The shutoff of Russian gas through the Ukraine is creating an energy crisis throughout the European Union during this long cold winter of sub zero temperatures. The fact is that the longer it goes on, the worse the crisis will become as gas storage supplies dwindle and disappear.

So what is Vladimir Putin up to by creating this energy crisis in Europe? Also, is it just a coincidence that many of the scientists that believe the solar cycle will result in dramatic global cooling during the next few decades come from Russia?

Accuweather Long Range Meteorologist Joe Bastardi has an interesting theory that may answer both of these questions. Bastardi speculates that; "Putin is relying on (climate) data from Russian scientists and wants to bring some European nations to their knees by exploiting their reliance on natural gas when the weather is at its coldest".

Bastardi continues; "Putin thinks he knows what is going to happen about the overall climate pattern. So, if you control the pipeline into Europe, you literally can control Europe without firing a shot - if you control the energy.”

Vladimir Putin has a history of trying to exploit natural resources for wealth and to gain political advantage. Over a year ago, when Arctic Sea Ice was rapidly melting, Russia was trying to claim the resource rich land under the Arctic Ice Cap, even before it became available.(For More Read: Russia Claims The North Pole on eworldvu)

It may well be that as many nations spend large sums of money to reduce C02 gas to prevent global warming, Putin is gambling on a much different climate change outcome.

Russia's new cold war with Europe is already underway. In the years ahead, if global temperatures continue to decline, Russia will be the beneficiary and the European Union will have to pay.

Days Without A Sunspot Reach The Top Two

There were sixteen days without a sunspot in the first nineteen days of December 2008.

This means that this years lack of sunspot activity has exceeded 1912 as the second quietest year in more than a century.

In fact, last year was also noted for the quiet of the sun. 2007 also finished in the list of top ten years without a sunspot. However, the number of days without solar activity has dramatically increased this year from one year ago.

Meanwhile, according to the National Climatic Data Center, this year will be America’s coldest year since 1997. Certainly, this has become apparent in the last few weeks, as the harsh reality of ice and snow has been seen in several unusual places in the country.

In Southern California a half-inch of snow covered Malibu’s hills while a half-foot of the white stuff barricaded highways and marooned commuters in desert towns east of Los Angeles. Three inches of snow closed Las Vegas’ McCarren Airport and dusted the Strip’s hotels and casinos. Recently, eight inches of snow struck New Orleans and blanketed Southern Louisiana.

The cold has also strengthened in places that are used to its intensity. The National Weather Service reports that last summer was Anchorage’s third-coldest on record. In addition, the National Snow and Ice Data Center found that Arctic sea ice expanded 13.2 percent this year, or 270,000 square miles. In Canada, every part of the country will have a White Christmas for the first time since 1971.

The fact is that from 1998 until January 2007, the average temperature of the Earth’s atmosphere near its surface decreased some 0.25 C (0.45 F) but from January 2007 until the spring of 2008, it has dropped a whopping 0.75 C (1.35 F).

So, a lack of solar activity in the last two years may well be driving this dramatic global cooling trend. In 2008, the days without a sunspot reached the top two. If this trend continues, dreams of a white Christmas may soon become a reality in Malibu.

For more on global cooling and sunspot activity see: To Predict Global Climate Change Look To The Sun on eworldvu

The Year Of Man-Made Global Warming Doubt

Scientists at the UN global warming conference currently underway in Poland this week, made one thing clear. They say that they have completed one crucial task. They have established beyond a doubt that man-made global warming is for real.

Last year, the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released a 2007 Summary for Policymakers authored by fifty two scientists which said that climate change is "unequivocal, is already happening, and is caused by human activity."

So, if the United Nations Panel on Climate Change has proven beyond any doubt that human activity creates Global Warming, why is there so much intense disagreement to that conclusion within the scientific community?

Maybe its because the planet has not seen any warming in the last ten years. It could also be due to the fact that all those dire predictions by climate computer models of warming in this decade have proven to be so incorrect. Man-made global warming doubt also may be growing because the planet has actually begun to cool.

In fact, 2008 is set to be the coolest year of this decade, according to a preliminary estimate of global average temperature from the Met Office (UK). The global average temperature for 2008 should come in close to 14.3C, which is 0.14C below the average temperature for 2001-07.

So far in 2008, there have been 250 scientists that have added their names to a list of 400 scientists that have already spoken out against the United Nations concerning man-made global warming.

This week, a newly updated U.S. Senate Minority Report will feature the dissenting voices of these 650 international scientists. Many are current and former U.N. IPCC scientists, who have now turned against the U.N. The U.S. Senate report is the latest evidence of the growing groundswell of scientific opposition rising to challenge the concept that global warming is man-made.

Here is a sample of some of the quotes from international scientists the Senate Minority Report is said to contain:

“I am a skeptic. Global warming has become a new religion.” - Nobel Prize Winner for Physics, Ivar Giaever.

“Since I am no longer affiliated with any organization nor receiving any funding, I can speak quite frankly. As a scientist I remain skeptical."- Atmospheric Scientist Dr. Joanne Simpson, the first woman in the world to receive a PhD in meteorology and formerly of NASA who has authored more than 190 studies and has been called “among the most preeminent scientists of the last 100 years.”

Warming fears are the “worst scientific scandal in the history. When people come to know what the truth is, they will feel deceived by science and scientists.” - UN IPCC Japanese Scientist Dr. Kiminori Itoh, an award-winning PhD environmental physical chemist.

“The IPCC has actually become a closed circuit; it doesn’t listen to others. It doesn’t have open minds. I am really amazed that the Nobel Peace Prize has been given on scientifically incorrect conclusions by people who are not geologists,” - Indian geologist Dr. Arun D. Ahluwalia at Punjab University and a board member of the UN-supported International Year of the Planet.

“The models and forecasts of the UN IPCC “are incorrect because they only are based on mathematical models and presented results at scenarios that do not include, for example, solar activity.” - Victor Manuel Velasco Herrera, a researcher at the Institute of Geophysics of the National Autonomous University of Mexico

“It is a blatant lie put forth in the media that makes it seem there is only a fringe of scientists who don’t buy into anthropogenic global warming.” - U.S Government Atmospheric Scientist Stanley B. Goldenberg of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA.

“Even doubling or tripling the amount of carbon dioxide will virtually have little impact, as water vapour and water condensed on particles as clouds dominate the worldwide scene and always will.” Geoffrey G. Duffy, a professor in the Department of Chemical and Materials Engineering of the University of Auckland, NZ.

“For how many years must the planet cool before we begin to understand that the planet is not warming? For how many years must cooling go on?” - Geologist Dr. David Gee the chairman of the science committee of the 2008 International Geological Congress who has authored 130 plus peer reviewed papers, and is currently at Uppsala University in Sweden.

A climate debate continues to rage within the scientific community, and one thing has become very certain. In 2008, there is a growing scientific consensus behind man-made global warming doubt.

Days Without Sunspots Are In The Top Five

The news is about the cold weather in late 2008. Newspapers report that glaciers in Canada, California, and New Zealand are growing, as the result of colder temperatures and increased snowfall.

After years of decline, glaciers in Norway are again growing, reports the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE).

Meanwhile, in Alaska, the United States Geologic Survey has maintained a research project measuring the state of Alaskan glaciers since 1946. This year records were broken for most snow buildup. It was also the first time since measurements began that Arctic glaciers did not shrink during the summer months.

Australian Ski fields recently recorded a heavy snow fall about a week before the summer started. Also, ski resorts across Europe opened last weekend ahead of schedule after the biggest November snowfalls in at least a decade. Meanwhile heavy snow and freezing cold closed schools in much of Spain.

In New Zealand, environmental groups are angry about the new government's plan to review the science behind climate change. Environmentalists think New Zealand's reputation would be damaged if the concept of global warming is questioned.

These are all stories making international news in recent days. Of course, these stories are the result of the significant drop in global temperatures over the last two years. A drop in temperatures that may well be connected to sunspot activity.

In 2007, there were 183 days without a sunspot observed on the face of the sun. The year would be ranked ninth in the last one hundred years for a lack of sunspot activity. This year, the number of days without sunspots have already easily surpassed that level from last year.

At the end of November 2008, the number of days without a sunspot was at 239. It made 2008, the fifth ranked year without a sunspot in a century, with one full month left to go. In fact, by the end of this week, the 2008 rank will likely move up to number three, since the sun has been blank, so far this month. The number two spot is within reach with fifteen days of sunspot inactivity during December.

Two years in a row of declining temperatures with a near record lack of sunspot activity while CO2 gas continues to increase in the atmosphere. If this trend continues, history would suggest that it could get very cold. Then, the huge, lucrative, international business of research into man-made global warming would have to be put on hold.

The Controversial Paper Of Livingston And Penn

I thought that I would check on the activity of the sun today. After all, in March, many prominent scientists were worried that Solar Cycle 24 would be so active by now that our entire communications system would be disrupted.

That 2008 consensus scientific prediction certainly has proven to be well off the mark and dramatically incorrect.

As can be see in the picture above, once again today, there are no sunspots, and the face of the sun is blank. In fact, a blank sun is the same picture that has been seen by astronomers for over 200 days during this year already. The number of days without a sunspot now makes 2008, the fifth blankest year in the last century and there is still plenty of time left in the year to move toward a record and be on top.

So, what does this lack of sunspot activity on the sun really mean? The answer is still unknown but there is one thing that we do now know. We know that there was only one scientific paper that predicted this current trend in sunspot activity before it all began. However, it was denied publication nearly three years ago.

The paper was released during an active sun in 2005. It was laughed at in the scientific community, never published, rejected by scientific journals, and eventually dismissed as being too controversial.

This controversial paper was based on the research of a pair of astronomers from the National Solar Observatory (NSO) at Kitt Peak in Tucson, Arizona, William Livingston and Matthew Penn.

The researchers looked at minute spectroscopic and magnetic changes in the sun by analyzing data from sunspot observations over a 15-year period from 1990 to 2005. In total, over 1000 sunspots were measured, noting their umbral brightness, temperature and magnetic field strength.

Livingston and Penn discovered that the sunspot umbral magnetic field was decreasing rapidly from nearly 3000 Gauss in the late 1990’s to nearly 2000 Gauss in 2005. Projecting the current trend to continue until 2015, the umbral magnetic field strength would hit 1500 Gauss. At that point, the sunspot structure would not be maintained since no umbral darkening could be observed.

So, if the umbral magnetic field continued to decrease, the Sun would continue to become less active over time until the 11-year solar cycle would effectively be “put on hold” in the year 2015. It would remain on hold until the unknown mechanism driving the process decided to start up again. The result is that in 2015 there would be no visable sunspots.

The conclusion of their research was certainly startling and it is also the title of their work: “Sunspots may vanish by 2015". It should be noted that their paper only considers data from 15 years worth of sunspots, that’s only just a little more than one cycle. Data over several sunspot cycles could certainly be seen as more conclusive.

However, what if they are proven correct and we are about to enter a sunspot minimum with the regular eleven year sunspot cycle on hold in just a few years time? It has happened before in the Maunder and Dalton Minimums, and if sunspot history is a guide, much colder times for this planet would be ahead.

One thing seems certain. If the current lack of sunspot activity becomes a continuing trend, nobody will be laughing at the scientific research in the controversial paper of Livingston and Penn.

Click Here to Read The Paper of Livingston and Penn

The Year Of The Man-Made Global Warming Skeptic

In 2008, scientists from all over the world are jumping off the man-made global warming bandwagon. This is due to the fact that environmental study after study concludes that the behavior of man is not the cause of significant global warming.

In a recently released Geological Society of America abstract, Dr. Don Easterbrook, Professor of Geology at Western Washington University, presented data showing that the global warming cycle from 1977 to 1998 is now over and that we have entered into a new global cooling period that should last for the next three decades.

He also suggests that since the IPCC climate models are now so far off from what is actually happening that their projections for both this decade and century must be considered highly unreliable.

Meanwhile, David Douglass and John Christy, in a paper just accepted for publication and now available on the internet, have come to the conclusion that natural changes in global water temperature are responsible for an increase in global temperature. Here is their scientific conclusion:

"El Nino and La Nina effects in the tropics have a more significant affect on global temperature anomalies than carbon dioxide, in particular it was an El Nino event that drove the 1998 global temperature maximum".

At NASA, Dr. Roy Spencer, believes natural cycles account for most of last century’s warming, with carbon dioxide increases contributing only a modest amount.

His new research, which was submitted to Geophysical Research Letters for publication, shows that climate models overstate the positive feedback from an increase in carbon dioxide, and therefore grossly overstate the projected warming during the next century

In addition, two new studies (article in Science Magazine) point to wind-induced circulation changes in the ocean as the dominant cause of the recent ice losses through the glaciers draining both the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, not ‘global warming.’

In June, Dr. David Evans, an architect of Australia’s Kyoto compliance, and for years a noted climate change alarmist, became the latest man-made global warming doubter. Evans outlines the four main reasons why 2008 has become the year of the global warming skeptic and why he recently jumped off of the global warming bandwagon.

1.The missing “greenhouse signature”, which would be a hot zone about 10 km up in the atmosphere. It’s been sought for years - hundreds of measurements using radiosondes (a sort of temperature measuring weather balloon). It would constitute the smoking gun . Hundreds of tests have returned the same answer - it’s not there. It is statistically impossible that the hundreds of tests missed the spot. The existing models on greenhouse warming do not work without this hot zone.
2. “There is no evidence to support the idea that carbon emissions cause significant global warming” says Evans. “None". There is plenty of evidence that global warming has occurred, and theory suggests that carbon emissions should raise temperatures (though by how much is hotly disputed) but there are no observations” constituting evidence that carbon emissions are a significant driver in warming trends.
3. Satellites measuring the world’s temperature uniformly show that the warming trend stopped in 2001 and that in the past year the temperature actually returned to 1980 levels. Satellite measurements are the only truly reliable method for capturing the data as land-based measurements are vulnerable to encroachments of expanding cities and “urban heat island effect.”
4.“The new ice cores show that in the past six global warmings over the past half a million years, the temperature rises occurred on average 800 years before the accompanying rise in atmospheric carbon. Which says something important about which was cause and which was effect.”

As global temperatures continue to cool and research against man-made global warming continues to pile up, as scientists abandon the man-made global warming bandwagon one thing is becoming increasingly clear. The cause of global climate change should be based on facts and evidence and not just our fear.

(See: Melting Arctic Sea Ice And Global Warming Hype on eworldvu.com)

Climate Change And The Quiet Of The Sun

A sunspot was seen this month on the twenty second of September. However , it disappeared very quickly the following day.

The truth is that the lack of sunspot activity in 2008 is beginning to remind some observers of the low sunspot activity at the beginning of the Dalton Minimum.

Of course, none of us were alive at the time, but the Dalton Minimum was a forty year period (1790 to 1830) of low sunspot activity that would lead to a dramatic cooling of the planet. So, low sunspot activity could well be an indication that colder not warmer times for our planet are immediately ahead.

It was also interesting to read the NASA press release yesterday about the discovery from its Ulysses Spacecraft. The spacecraft revealed that global Solar Wind Output was at a 50-Year Low.

Dave McComas (Ulysses’ solar wind instrument principal investigator and senior executive director at the Southwest Research Institute in San Antonio) is quoted as follows: “The sun’s million mile-per-hour solar wind inflates a protective bubble, or heliosphere, around the solar system. It influences how things work here on Earth and even out at the boundary of our solar system where it meets the galaxy." He continued: "Ulysses data indicate the solar wind’s global pressure is the lowest we have seen since the beginning of the space age.

So what does this discovery from the Ulysses Spacecraft mean? Of course, nobody knows for sure, but low solar wind pressure will mean an increase in the amount of cosmic rays entering our solar system.

Now, consider that the study of cosmic rays has been the focus of Physicist, Henrik Svensmark of the Danish National Space Center in Copenhagen for over a decade. Svensmark's research has led to his theory that during the last 100 years cosmic rays became scarcer because unusually vigorous action by the Sun batted away many of them. As a result, fewer cosmic rays meant fewer clouds leading to a warmer world and the increase in global temperature.

In his book released last year called: The Chilling Stars: A New Theory of Climate Change, Svenesmark described his theory that cosmic rays "have more effect on the climate than manmade CO2". So, if Svensmark is right, the increase in cosmic rays will lead to an increase in cloud cover and global cooling.

There has been little sunspot activity throughout 2008. In fact, last month was the first month without a sunspot since 1913. Meanwhile, the Ulysses Spacecraft has just measured solar wind output at a fifty year low. The quiet of our sun may well mean that the global climate is beginning to change once again. It could be that colder not warmer times are just ahead.

For more on man-made global warming read: A Nobel Peace Prize And A Weather Balloon
For more on the Sun read: To Predict Global Climate Change Look To The Sun on eWorldvu.com

The First Month Without A Sunspot Since 1913

You may have missed this news announcement during the last few days. Certainly there were many other major stories that attracted more publicity and attention.

However, while the Olympics were a daily headline from Beijing and the United States political Conventions were being held in Colorado and Minnesota, as Hurricane Gustav was threatening the Gulf Coast with destruction and Russia was still a problem for Georgia, a lack of sunspot activity on the face of the sun had become an important story as well.

There were no recorded sunspots in the month of August 2008. In fact, this is the first full month since 1913 that the sun has not shown any evidence of Solar magnetic activity. So, August is the first month in over 1140 consecutive months to not have recorded a single sunspot. The truth is that sunspot activity had been minimal all year. (see Taking The Temperature Of Global Climate Change on eWorldvu.com). In fact, there had been only an average of 3 sunspots each month for the first seven months of the year.

A lack of solar magnetic activity is important because there is increasing scientific evidence that the cooling and warming of this planet is primarily a function of the sun. In the past a significant decline in solar magnetic activity has led to a substantial decline in global temperatures. Higher activity has led to higher global temperatures.

During the last 1000 years, a weak or non existent sunspot cycle can be linked to three global temperature events called the Dalton, Maunder, and Spörer Minimums. Each of these events led to a rapid cooling of the planet. One was large enough to be called a “mini ice age”.

The current lack of sunspot activity may mean much colder times are ahead for the planet over the next few decades. The politics of global warming may well be ready to turn into a scientific concern over global cooling. It is story that everyone should continue to monitor in the days and months ahead.