Wednesday, November 5, 2008

The End Of The Campaign Of John McCain

There were many excuses for the Republican Electoral College debacle last night. It was not very close and it had not been for two months.

In fact, all the public opinion polls were very consistent. There was only one day after the conventions when a single poll indicated John McCain was ahead in the 2008 Presidential campaign .

The excuses for the McCain defeat are many. He was outspent by Barack Obama four to one and he had the unpopular Geoge Bush to run away from. As a result, there never was a blue state from the last election in play and his attempt to defend every red state in a Democratic year was not going to win the day.

Certainly, the timing of the current economic mess did not help his cause. In addition, a recent Pew Research study reported negative media coverage of McCain's campaign outpaced his opponent nearly three to one.

So, it can be argued that these obstacles were the reason for his lopsided defeat. There is no doubt they were a contributing factor but the loss in this election is really due to the candidate and his dubious campaign.

Remember that John McCain won his Party's nomination months before Barack Obama did. However, despite a Republican advantage of months of political time, the Obama campaign was better financed, better organized, and had more paid staff in all the battleground states on Election day.

Consider that McCain's response to the economic crisis in September was incoherent. He first said that the fundamentals of the economy were sound. Next, he suspended his campaign for several days to return to Washington because of the economic crisis. He would participate in the first debate after restarting his campaign, without any explanation behind these actions. It made him look erratic and indecisive in the economic crisis.

McCain's advanced age was always an issue for voters. His energy and campaign schedule were very light especially early in the campaign. Meanwhile, the inexperience of Sarah Palin did not provide comfort for voters, since in a McCain Presidency, she would be only a heartbeat away from becoming Commander and Chief.

Overall, the McCain campaign message was muted and subject to change. A campaign of experience would become a campaign of change. Until Joe The Plumber, McCain could not even explain how his tax policy was different from that of the Obama campaign.

Indeed, it was striking how Barack Obama stayed true to his message while John McCain's campaign was unfocused. A thirty year insider and Senator, running as a maverick, on a theme of change, would prove to be to difficult to sell to many 2008 voters.

In his gracious speech last night, John McCain said that the "failure is mine." His lasting legacy will be as a war hero, Senator and as a losing Presidential candidate that in his concession speech did not lie.

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

An Election Day 2008 Prediction In Rhyme

Election Day 2008 is finally here.
An end to the campaign of change and hope is now near.
Its also the end of debates, polls, rallys and smear.
Voting today will elect a man who will serve for four years.

It can't end soon enough since I am trying to avoid all those media ads that we constantly hear.
So, who will be the choice when all the votes are counted and the final Electoral College tally appears?
It seems that this is a big Democratic year. Increasing seats in Congress will make the Dems grin from ear to ear.

Raising income taxes never did bring voter fear.
So, high voter turnout will leave republicans in the rear.
We think the choice will make the media cheer, since Barack Obama will be the President Elect next year.
"Mac is back" was a slogan that not enough voters held dear.
It may not be a landslide but the final results will be clear.

For Republican's though all is not lost even though today they will pay a high cost.
The next election may make the Republicans boss.
The fact is that in American politics, winning is often followed by loss.

Monday, November 3, 2008

A Bounty Of Death For Pirates In Somalia

The M.V. Iran Deyanat was a dead weight tonnage bulk Carrier in a very big hurry. The ship owned by a state run company controlled by the Iranian military set sail from Nanjing, China in late July.

The Iranian vessel had a twenty eight member crew including two Russians,two Pakistanis and a Syrian. Its manifest describes a plan to unload Iron Ore and other products in Rotterdam and proceed to the Gulf of Aden. However, its arrival in the Gulf was unusual because the ship was several days early.

Speed was also a priority as the vessel next moved in a westerly direction toward the Suez Canal. At that point, it was attacked by 40 Somali pirates in high speed boats, all armed with AK-47s and rocket-propelled grenades.

The Iran Deyanat was captured by the pirates of Somalia and the ship was taken to Eyl, a fishing village off the northeastern coast . The pirates issued a two million dollar ransom demand for the ship and its crew. It was a ransom demand that would extract a heavy price.

In the days that followed, as the pirates attempted to assess their bounty, things would take a terrible turn. Upon opening one of the ship's seven heavily-secured containers, they found it filled with a "gritty, sand-like" substance. In the next several days, a number of the pirates suffered severe skin burns and loss of hair, and within two weeks sixteen pirates were dead.

Today, the ship remains in Eyl and there is a international bidding war underway to purchase the ship and understand its contents. The ship has been sanctioned and Iran cannot access the vessel while the United States Navy as well as the French are sitting off of the coast to seize the ship if it should get underway.

So, the mystery of the M.V. Iran Deyanat continues. The question is what caused the bounty of death for those pirates in Somalia? As of now, it is impossible for anyone to say. However chemical experts indicate that the pirates symptoms sound inconsistent with chemical poisoning, but may well be the effects of an exposure to radiation.

Meanwhile, Russian sources make an ominious claim. They describe the ship as "an enormous floating dirty bomb, intended to detonate after exiting the Suez Canal. The detonation would have been in close proximity to the coastal cities of Israel, sending a deadly radioactive cloud onshore.

If this explanation turns out to be true, its an act of war by Iran against Israel and the world's first known attempt at a dirty bomb attack. Indeed, a bounty of death for Pirates in Somalia needs to be watched closely, since it may eventually become the biggest international news story of the year.

Thursday, October 30, 2008

Election 2008: The Vote For The Most Strange

In every Presidential election there are some images that we remember. Images that have been captured by the media during the heat of the campaign.

Often, these images make us wonder why any sane person would run for political office. Certainly, these images show an absence of common sense and behavior difficult for most of us to explain.

Indeed, there are many examples of bad taste in the 2008 Presidential election campaign. Still, here is my vote for the top five things that will be remembered for a lack of good judgement and even as down right strange.

1. In July, The New Yorker had a picture of what it called a "satire" of Michelle and Barack Obama on its front cover. The "satire" magazine cover showed the Oval Office with Barack Obama as a tribal African. Michelle Obama was depicted in an afro-hairdo with a machine gun.
A picture of Osama Bin Laden was displayed on the wall and an American flag was on fire. Exactly, what was the editor thinking to allow the magazine to publish this picture?

2. Recently, Al Franken, who is not a credible candidate for the Senate but is running even with his opponent, Norm Coleman, was shown as a cartoon character, sticking out his tongue and wearing a beanie in a recent partisan Republican mailing. What ever happened to winning with new ideas in political election campaigns?

3. A Halloween display of Sarah Palin hung in effigy and John McCain emerging from a chimney in flames. These images courtesy of a West Hollywood couple were disturbing, misguided, and pretty strange. It just shows that in America, one man's hate crime could well be another man's Hollywood design.

4. A McCain campaign worker that pretends to be the victim of an attack by an Obama supporter at an ATM. She cuts a backwards B into her cheek in a vain attempt to give credit to her false claim. She was charged for filing a false police report for her deception and cheeky crime of physical pain.

5. A final example of the strange in Election 2008 comes from a quartet of young women in Brooklyn. They are pictured in a poster under the heading "Girls Say Yes to boys who say Obama".

Indeed, it's a poster that exists as an acknowledgement of the "dumbing down" of American society. Certainly, a poster that said "Girls say yes we can, to boys who say Obama" would have been far more appropriate in this strange election year.

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

The End Of The Phoenix Mission Is Near

It's common in late October for the temperature at Phoenix's arctic landing site to drop to well over -100 degrees Farenheit . The Phoenix lander is equipped with heaters to withstand the extreme cold, but there is now a bigger concern.

Winter on the far northern part of the Martian planet is coming, and days on the Arctic plains are shortening. As a result, the solar panels on Phoenix will soon not generate enough power.

Recognizing the inevitable, NASA has just announced that Phoenix's days to see and explore Mars are numbered.

However, NASA originally scheduled research on Mars for ninety days. Indeed, the extended length of this Phoenix Mission should promote its success. In November,the Lander will have analyzed the planets surface and atmosphere for more than five months.

So, what did the Phoenix find in the last five months on the martian surface? The test results of the samples will be analyzed for some time, but here are some initial observations from NASA:

The lander found evidence that the chemical makeup of the dust on the surface of Mars resembles that of sea water, adding to evidence that liquid water that once may have supported life flowed on the planet's surface.

Phoenix experiments also yielded clues pointing to calcium carbonate, the main composition of chalk, and particles that could be clay. Most carbonates and clays on Earth form only in the presence of liquid water.

The Phoenix lander detected snow falling from Martian clouds. A laser instrument designed to gather knowledge of how the atmosphere and surface interact on Mars has detected snow from clouds about 2.5 miles above the spacecraft's landing site. Data also shows the snow vaporizing before reaching the ground.

Recently, Phoenix principal investigator Peter Smith of the University of Arizona was quoted as follows: "Mars is giving us some surprises. We're excited because surprises are where discoveries come from.

Smith continued: "One surprise is how the soil is behaving. The ice-rich layers stick to the scoop when poised in the sun above the deck, different from what we expected from all the Mars simulation testing we've done. That has presented challenges for delivering samples, but we're finding ways to work with it and we're gathering lots of information to help us understand this soil."

Over the next several weeks, four survival heaters will be shut down, one at a time, in an effort to conserve power. The heaters serve the purpose of keeping the electronics within tested survivable limits.

As each heater is disabled, some of the instruments are also expected to cease operations. The energy saved is intended to power the lander's main camera and meteorological instruments until the very end. "At that point, Phoenix will be at the mercy of Mars," said Chris Lewicki of JPL, lead mission manger.

For background on the Phoenix Mission, read: The Phoenix Mission Replaces Hollywood In Martian Exploration on eWorldvu.com.

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

The Final Days Of The Election Of 2008

There are just six days to go in the 2008 Presidential Election. At this late stage in the race, there are several things that have become quite clear. Barack Obama has run a better campaign than John McCain.

He has had the discipline to stay on message and performs very well in front of a teleprompter. Obama's campaign is better organized and the candidate has looked very "Presidential" in all of the debates.

In general, McCain has suffered from the timing of the financial crisis and the unpopularity of the current Administration. The truth is that McCain has more than a 20% higher approval rating than George W. Bush. The fact that this is still a fairly close election in a Democratic year seems hard to believe, but that is what the pollsters say.

However, there has not been one public opinion tracking poll since early September that has indicated that Barack Obama has trailed in this election. Current polls in the major battleground states show Obama tied or slightly in the lead. In western states that usually vote Republican like New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado, Obama looks like he is well ahead and will probably win.

There is little doubt that if the election were held today, Barack Obama would become the next President of the United States in 2009. He will win next week if nothing changes between now and then. However, there is still one week to go in election 2008 and the last week of any Presidential Election can be the most volatile.

Remember in 2000, George Bush had his college record of DUI appear in the major media markets across the country. This revelation evaporated his four point lead in the polls over the last few days before the election and led to a surge by Al Gore that almost cost Bush the Presidency.

What can happen in the final days to change the outcome in election 2008? It probably would be an external event to the campaign. A foreign policy crisis or a national security event. A new revelation about Barack Obama, his background, his ideas or even dubious comments from his wife. There are certainly many different rumors in the blogosphere of damaging tapes containing information that will soon be released that could alter this race.

Indeed, we have entered the final days of the Election of 2008. So, bring a healthy dose of skepticism, and hold on tight because it may be a wild ride. In politics, it even has a name, its often called the October surprise.

Monday, October 27, 2008

Israel's Choice Is War Or A Nuclear Iran

Israeli Prime Minister-designate Tzipi Livni just announced that she cannot form a coalition government and new general elections will soon be held in the State of Israel. Many current public opinion polls indicate that in the general election, former Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu will be elected Prime Minister of Israel in early 2009.

The fact is that these new Israeli elections are likely to end the current peace process with the Palestinians, restarted with U.S. backing at Annapolis, Md., nearly one year ago.

Meanwhile, Iran continues to build a strategic relationship with Russia through a new energy alliance. Both countries should soon announce the formation of a natural gas cartel. In addition, Iran continues to enrich uranium, well along its path to becoming the only nuclear power in the Middle East.

It has become obvious that the hope of any additional strong United Nations Sanctions against Iran for its illegal nuclear enrichment program are now non-existent. Previous United Nations Sanctions have proven too weak and have not worked anyway.

In the United States, the deteriorating economy and the 2008 Presidential election dominates the national news. The dubious prospect of a nuclear Iran has dropped well down the list of problems that need immediate national attention.

For Israel, after the general election, the decision that they face is unfortunately clear. Their choice between war or the threat of a nuclear Iran is the direct result of another failure of international diplomacy and the United Nations.

It all adds up to an unresolved international problem destined to escalate into a major world wide event. Indeed, a major foreign policy crisis is on the horizon, soon after the start of the new year.